Snapshot: The Week 11 Football Playoff Picture [updated]

The pieces of the high school football chessboard moved significantly in Week 10. All that’s left is a smattering of games and then the grand Thanksgiving Week finale.

Fourteen teams have qualified for the annual two-week grind to decided our four state champions.

It’s time, dear friends, for the final push.

First, here are the state playoff standings via Matt Fischer of the CIAC (aka the H.A.L. 9000 SuperComputer). It gives you everything you need to know about your favorite team in each playoff race: Your maximum point potential and your minimum point potential and the bonus games and guarantees that get you there.

When teams below you can’t match your minimum point potential, then you’re in. Top 8 averages reach the playoffs. Top four get home quarterfinals.

Remember: Teams get 100 points for a win (130 for three-higher classes, 120 vs. two-higher classes, 110 for one-higher class; Unless it’s a league game, win vs. one lower class is 90, two lower classes is 80, three lower classes is 70). Then teams get 10 points for each victory by a defeated opponent. Your total points are divided by games played to reach your official average.

 CLASS LL | CLASS L | CLASS M | CLASS S

Here’s the short version on where our contestants stand with two weeks left. This was written with the midnight candles burnt down to the nub, so if there’s anything we missed, let us know.

Updated scenarios are colored in MAROON.

CLASS LL

They’re IN!

• NEWTOWN – Clinched win and home quarterfinal.  Win and they’ll clinch top seed.
• WEST HAVEN – Win: Clinch home quarterfinal, either No. 2 or 3 seed. Not No. 1 unless Newtown loses.
• NFA – Win:  Clinch home quarterfinal.
• GLASTONBURY – Win clinch home quarterfinal. Loss and it off on the road as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

Just win, baby!

• HALL – Beat Conard this week and it’s in, likely as the No. 5 seed. A loss and it’ll be sweating. Will need most of its 60 bonuses or a bunch of teams below lose to sneak back in.
• SOUTHINGTON – Win: In. Likely the No. 6 seed. Loss: Like Hall, it would find itself desperately searching for bonus points. It won’t find many.
• FAIRFIELD PREP – Win: In. Lose: done.

Uh, a little help here?

• RIDGEFIELD – Beat Danbury, plus get two of Prep, Staples, Trumbull to lose, which is a realistic scenario. It would also have a great chance to outpoint Hall or Southington if either lost (especially Southington since that would mean 10 extra points for the Tigers). Update: Ridgefield could outpoint Staples in a two-way race if Harding, Stamford and Notre Dame-WH wins.
• STAPLES – Win, then Prep, Ridgefield, Hall or Southington to lose. Easy. Staples would win a 3-way race with Ridgefield and Trumbull since it shares many of the same bonus points and benefits from Trumbull winning. Worth noting: Trumbull can’t outpoint Staples. Update: In order to outpoint Ridgefield in a two-way race for one spot, the Wreckers would need Harding, McMahon, Stamford or ND-West Haven to lose (i.e. just one bonus to stay ahead)
• XAVIER – Needs three of Prep, Staples, Ridgefield, Trumbull to lose. Not a stretch of the imagination. Xavier certainly doesn’t think so. It’s scheduled a Thanksgiving Eve scrimmage vs. St. Paul to prepare for this contingency.
• TRUMBULL – Win, then get Prep to lose , then Ridgefield or Staples to lose (preferably Staples).  If Prep doesn’t lose, then both Ridgefield and Staples need to lose. Trumbull could also benefit if Hall or Southington loses. Worth noting that Trumbull can outpoint Ridgefield, if it comes down to it. But it’s not likely.

“Hail Mary…”

• McMAHON – Win and get serious, serious help: Ridgefield, Staples, Trumbull, Prep all need to lose. If all but one of them lose, then McMahon’s got to hope it can outpoint Xavier. McMahon can get anywhere between 1080 and 1110 points with wins from Ludlowe, Cross (which would deny Xavier 10) and Danbury. Xavier can get between 1080 and 1130 with wins by Hand, Hillhouse (which would deny McMahon 10), Amity, Shelton and Staples.

See you next year

• GREENWICH – Win, and see the world above them collapse on itself.

CLASS L

They’re IN!

• NEW CANAAN – Win: Home quarterfinal. Top seed.
• PLATT – Win. Gets home quarterfinal.

Just win, baby! [updated]

• MIDDLETOWN – Win. Home quarterfinal with a Darien loss or just some bonus help. Loss: Will need just few bonuses to get in.
• DARIEN – Win. Gets home quarterfinal. Loss: Still in good shape. The Blue Wave would need just a few bonus games or a team below them to lose.
• NAUGATUCK – Win: In and it’s likely the No. 5 seed. They play unbeaten Ansonia, though. A loss to the Chargers and Naugatuck will be sweating for what little bonus help it has. The Greyhounds will top out only at 118.18 if both Torrington and Bunnell win, and that won’t do it. So somebody, like North Haven or Hand, would need to lose to make the Greyhounds breathe easier. So, just win, baby.
• NEW LONDON – Still has two games left vs. East Lyme and NFA. Win both and it’s in. Lose one, and the Whalers will desperately need teams below it to lose. If the Whalers don’t beat NFA, they’re in serious, serious trouble.

Uh, a little help here? [updated]

• FARMINGTON –Beat Plainville and get just a few bonus games to stay ahead of Bristol Eastern, Hand and North Haven.  It’s point range is (119.09-124.55). They get two, and they’re in great shape. Then again, Farmington’s counting on Wethersfield, E.O. Smith, Maloney, Simbsbury, Windsor and RHAM. Maybe they’ll only get two.
• BRISTOL EASTERN – It needs to beat Bristol Central to reach 115.45. But it’s going to need a majority of its 8 bonus games (and those are iffy) to outpoint Hand and North Haven. They’re counting on Berlin, NWC, E.O. Smith, Maloney, Hartford Public, Fermi, Windsor and Bulkeley. Getting six of those (for a 120.91 average) will do the trick.
• HAND – Hand has three losses, but thanks to its SCC Division I schedule, it has accumulated enough to stay in the hunt. First: The Tigers must beat Guilford. Enough wins from Prep, North Haven, Notre Dame-WH, Shelton and Cheshire (a majority of whom are favored to win) will put the Tigers into prime position to steal a spot, especially from Naugatuck (with an Ansonia loss) or Bristol Eastern.
• NORTH HAVEN –  They need to beat Amity. Then the Indians would be looking for help. They’d would love if Hand lost, since their win would give the Tigers points and North Haven wouldn’t win would be in a tight bonus race with their rivals. Hand holds the tiebreaker.  North Haven would also benefit from either New London (to NFA) or Farmington (to Plainville) or Naugatuck (to Ansonia), to open more possibilities. A majority of wins by Bridgeport Central, Hillhouse, Foran, Sheehan and especially Guilford would push them over Naugatuck, New London (if those two lose) and Eastern.

“Hail Mary…”

WINDSOR — Everybody would have to lose above them.

See you next year

WETHERSFIELD, MASUK, AVON

CLASS M

They’re IN!

• VALLEY REGIONAL – Has two games left. Win both and it’s the top seed.
• ST. JOSEPH – Beat Trumbull and it’s the No. 2 seed. The only way it can get the No. 1 seed is if Valley Regional loses.
• BROOKFIELD – Beat Bethel and it’s got a home quarterfinal, most likely the No. 3 seed.

Just win, baby!

• GILBERT/NORTHWESTERN – Has two games left, a tough one with Valley and Thanksgiving against Housatonic/Wamogo, which says it’ll play on Thanksgiving despite forfeiting five straight games. Win one and they’re in. Win two and they’ll get a home quarterfinal. The Yellow Jackets are a lock.
• BARLOW – Barlow is mere bonus games from qualifying for the playoffs for the first time in school history. A win over Weston will assure it.
• BETHEL – Beat Brookfield and Bethel will qualify. A loss, and the Wildcats will be hoping Stonington loses and then for bonus help.
• LEDYARD – The Colonels will qualify by winning their final two games. Lose once and they’ll be sweating for bonus help, but, as of Week 10, they have enough outstanding to feel relatively safe.
• QUINNEBAUG VALLEY (aka Putnam) – Saved their season with an OT victory over Bullard-Havens. A win vs. Killingly will put the Pride into the playoffs. A loss and they’re done.

Uh, a little help here?

• STONINGTON – The Bears have two games left: Killingly and Westerly-R.I. Win both to get into position to possibly snag a spot if another team stumbles, either Quinnebaug or maybe even Ledyard. The Bears are No. 10 in the standings, but have a better shot than Wolcott.
• WOLCOTT – Beat Holy Cross on Thanksgiving and get Quinnebaug and Stonington to lose. If Ledyard lost twice, that would help.

“Hail Mary…”

• FORAN – The Lions are a long shot. How long? The width of a astronomical unit. At best. They’d need Wolcott and Stonington to lose and Ledyard to lose twice to have a remote shot.

See you next year

NEW FAIRFIELD (needs Ledyard to lose twice and not receive many bonuses. Then it needs Foran, Stonington, Wolcott and even Ellington to all lose once). ELLINGTON/SOMERS (needs what New Fairfield needs, also needs to win twice). COVENTRY/WINDHAM TECH/BOLTON

CLASS S

They’re IN!

• CAPITAL PREP – Beat Prince Tech and they’ve clinched the No. 1 seed.
• ANSONIA – The Chargers will be the No. 2 seed at home with a win over Naugatuck.
• PRINCE TECH – A win over Capital Prep would lock Prince Tech in as the No. 3 and vault Ansonia to No. 1 (with a win). They’ll fall no further than No. 6 with a loss.
• WOODLAND —  A win over Seymour would push Woodland as high as No. 3 and a home quarterfinal. A loss could drop it as low as No. 7.
• ROCKY HILL – A win over Northwest Catholic would make Rocky Hill either No. 5 or No. 4. A loss would drop the Terriers as low as No. 6

Just win, baby!

• MORGAN – Hasn’t clinched yet, but a win either over SMSA or Old Saybrook/Westbrook will do it.
• BLOOMFIELD – Basically with a win over Fermi and just one bonus game. Not quite dead with a loss, but that shouldn’t happen.
• COGINCHAUG – Win its last two vs. H-K and Cromwell and it will complete the field. It can still qualify by winning one but only if Holy Cross loses.

Uh, a little help here?

• HOLY CROSS – Needs to beat Wolcott and then hope Coginchaug loses to have a good chance.
• MONTVILLE – Needs to beat St. Bernard, a Coginchaug loss (especially to Cromwell) and a Holy Cross loss.

“Hail mary…”

• NORTHWEST CATHOLIC and CANTON – We’re being nice. They really should be in the next category…

See you next year

WINDHAM, NORTH BRANFORD, SEYMOUR, PLAINFIELD, SMSA/UNIVERSITY

UPDATES: Added Middletown. …