It's a mad, mad, mad, mad, mad CIAC playoff scenario: CLASS M [updated Tuesday]

(Stop us if you’ve heard this one before…)

Today is the first day of the rest of the season. Thanksgiving, the greatest sporting day of the Connecticut sports calendar, is mere days away.

It signals the end of the season for most of our contestants. This is your Super Bowl, kids, so make it count.

But for few lucky contestants, it’s time to see who gets to advance to the bonus round, aka the state playoffs, to play for the grand prize: a trip to lovely, hard-hittin’ New Britain and the glorious confines of Arute Field for the state championship.

So who’s getting in? Who needs to win what and who to do what to advance to the state playoff round?

Unfortunately, footballers, there is math involved. Your teachers were right: You do need this stuff in real life.

So break out your abacuses, slide rules and calculators (yes, yes, you can use your phones for this quiz). It’s time to put your skills to the test.

We’ll do our best to break it all down for you.

Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for CLASS M:

• Class M teams get 100 points for a victory. A win over any Class LL school is 120 points and a win over any Class L school is worth 110.
• All league wins and wins vs. fellow Class M schools equal 100 points. Out-of-league wins over Class S from lower divisions are worth just 90.
• Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
• The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
• Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.

All of these scenarios were taken from Matt Fischer’s CIAC Playoff worksheet (aka the H.A.L. 9000).

Here’s the CLASS M worksheet.

OTHER SCENARIOS: CLASS LL | CLASS L |  CLASS S

REMEMBER: This is based on our paltry math skills. Be sure to let us know if something doesn’t jive. We’ll reexamine and fix it for the benefit of all. Thank you.

HOME COOKIN’

1.  Valley/Old Lyme     11-0 1630

Guaranteed (30):  Morgan vs. Old Saybrook/Westbrook; Hyde vs. N.Branford; Cromwell vs. Coginchaug

Bonuses (30): Cov./Wind. Tech/Bolton vs. Ell./Somers*; SMSA/University vs. Enfield*; Gilbert/NW* vs. Housatonic/Wamogo

MAX = 1790 [162.73] – 1760 [160.00]

THE SKINNY — Valley has clinched the No. 1 seed.

2. St. Joseph 9-1 1460                 

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Trumbull (LL-8w)
Guaranteed (10): Trinity Cath. vs. Wilton
Bonuses (70): Ffld.Prep* vs. West Haven; Hamden vs. ND-WH*; Ffld.Ludlowe vs. Ffld.Warde*; Bull. Havens vs. Bassick*; Ridgefield* vs. Danbury; McMahon* vs. Norwalk; New Canaan vs. Darien*

MAX = 1740 [158.18] – 1670 [151.27]
MIN = 1540 [140.00] – 1470 [133.64]

THE SKINNY — The Hogs are pretty much locked in at No. 2 and a home game at Trumbull High School. A loss to Trumbull and Brookfield has should eclipse them with a win over Bethel. Worse-case scenario is the No. 3 spot.

THEY’RE IN!

3. Brookfield 9-1 1320         

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Bethel (M-8w)
Guaranteed (20):  Weston vs. Joel Barlow; Stratford vs. Bunnell
Bonuses (10):  Wilby* vs. Sacred Heart

MAX = 1530 [139.09] – 1520 [138.18]
MIN = 1350 [122.73]  – 1340 [121.82]

THE SKINNY — Brookfield can clinch a home game and get as high as the No. 2 seed with a win over Bethel. A loss, and Bethel, Barlow and Ledyard (if it practically maxes out) will surpass the Bobcats.

4. Gilbert/NW 8-2  1220

Remaining Game(s):  11/28 v.Housatonic/Wamogo (S-0w)
Guaranteed (10):  Granby vs. Canton
Bonuses (30):  Cov./Wind. Tech/Bolton vs. Ell./Somers*; Cromwell* vs. Coginchaug; SMSA/University vs. Enfield*

MAX = 1340 [121.82] – 1320 [120.91]
MIN = 1240 [112.73] – 1220 [110.91]

THE SKINNY — Gilbert/Northwestern will probably beat winless Housy, but that won’t be enough for a home quarterfinal. A Barlow win would puts the Falcons ahead and Ledyard has a chance to beat G/NW for the No. 5.  A Bethel win could subsequently push G/NW as low as No. 7.

5. Barlow 8-2  1210

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Weston (M-3w)
Bonuses (30): Watertown vs. Torrington*; Bethel* vs. Brookfield; Stratford* vs. Bunnell

MAX = 1370 [124.55] – 1340 [121.82]
MIN = 1240 [112.73] – 1210 [110.00]

THE SKINNY — Beat Weston and Barlow’s in line for a home quarterfinal (which would be played at WestConn, most likely). Though if, Bethel defeats Brookfield the Wildcats could usurp the spot, if it gets one more bonus game than Barlow. A Bethel tie with Barlow would go Barlow’s way since the Falcons won the head-to-head meeting. A loss, and Barlow could be staring at the No. 6 or No. 7 spot pending bonuses.

JUST WIN, BABY!

6. Ledyard  7-2 1150       

Remaining Game(s):  11/28 v.Fitch (L-4w)
Guaranteed (10): Bacon Acad. vs. RHAM
Bonuses (50):  Montville* vs. St. Bern./Norw. Tech; Griswold vs. Plainfield*; East Lyme vs. Waterford*; Killingly* vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis; Windham vs. Woodstock*; NFA vs. New London*

MAX = 1360 [123.64] – 1310 [118.18]
MIN =  1210 [100.00] – 1160 [105.45]

THE SKINNY – If Ledyard beats Fitch, the Colonels will qualify and could get as high as No. 4 and a home quarterfinal if Barlow happens to lose to Weston. They’ll probably be the No. 6. UPDATE: The Colonels are now just a Woodland win over Seymour from qualifying. Failing that, they’ll just need two of their bonuses to go their way to qualify (or just beat Fitch. Either/either).

7. Bethel 8-2 1160 

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Brookfield (M-9w)
Bonuses (20): Masuk* vs. Newtown; Derby* vs. Shelton; New Milford vs. New.Fair.*; Stratford vs. Bunnell*

MAX = 1370 [125.45] – 1350 [122.73]
MIN = 1180 [107.27]  – 1160 [105.45]

THE SKINNY – If Bethel beats Brookfield, the Wildcats are in. A loss and they’d just need one more bonus to assure they stay ahead of Stonington and Wolcott. So they’re basically in.

Putnam losing, of course, would open up a third spot and make life easier.

8. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis 8-2 1080

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Killingly (M-4w)
Guaranteed (30): Abbott Tech vs. Wolcott Tech; Wilcox Tech vs. Whitney Tech; O’Brien Tech vs. Platt Tech
Bonuses (20): Bull. Havens* vs. Bassick; E.Catholic vs. Cheney Tech*;

MAX = 1270 [115.45] – 1250 [113.64]
MIN = 1130 [102.73] – 1110 [100.91]

THE SKINNY —  Putnam can wrap this whole field up by beating Killingly, which is no sure thing. A loss and they’re done.

UH, A LITTLE HELP HERE…?

9. Stonington 7-3 990

Remaining Game(s):  11/28 v.Westerly (RI) (L-3w)
Guaranteed (10):  East Lyme vs. Waterford
Bonuses (50):  Griswold* vs. Plainfield; Windham vs. Woodstock*; Ledyard* vs. Fitch; Bacon Acad.* vs. RHAM; Killingly* vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis

MAX = 1180 [107.27] – 1130 [103.64]
MAX = 1040 [94.55] – 990 [90.00]

THE SKINNY – It’s easy for Stonington. Beat Westerly, then hope Killingly defeats Putnam. Done.

Or, as mentioned above, the Bears have a shot at qualifying over Bethel if Bethel loses to Brookfield. They would need at least three bonus games.

10. Wolcott 7-3 940

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Holy Cross (S-7w)
Guaranteed (20): Watertown vs. Torrington; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart
Bonuses (30): Kennedy vs. Crosby*; Derby* vs. Shelton; Seymour* vs. Woodland

MAX = 1160 [105.45] – 1130 [102.73]
MIN = 990 [90.91] – 960 [87.27]

THE SKINNY – Wolcott needs to beat Holy Cross. Then get both Stonington and Putnam to lose. There’s a mathematical chance they could outpoint Stonington for the final spot, but it would probably need Crosby, Derby and Seymour to all win while Stonington gets nothing.

‘HAIL MARY…’

11. Foran 7-3  920

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Jonathan Law (M-4w)
Guaranteed (10): Sheehan vs. Lyman Hall
Bonuses (50): Branford vs. East Haven*; Guilford* vs. Daniel Hand; Ffld.Ludlowe vs. Ffld.Warde*; Hillhouse* vs. Wilbur Cross; Trinity Cath.* vs. Wilton;

MAX = 1120 [101.82] – 1070 [97.27]

THE SKINNY – The Lions need a miracle: Losses by Stonington, Wolcott and Putnam. THEN they’d need Bassick and East Catholic to win their games and get four of their bonus games just to tie Putnam. OR all of them if either Bassick and East lose. And then Foran would probably still lose based on tiebreaker points.