Class S can be wrapped up easily if Bullard-Havens, Seymour, Stafford/Somers/East Windsor and Rocky Hill win this week.
Including the Air and Speed Bowl between SSEW and Windsor Locks, all of those games are being played Wednesday night. So we’ll know exactly where this Class S stands Saturday morning and if there’s any hope for the remaining teams.
Should any of them lose, then it gets messy. Real messy.
While the door will be open for (in order) Oxford, Trinity and Gilbert/Northwestern, it won’t be closed for the losing team, either. All of those teams will be in a tight race for bonus points. Get to 1180 and you can start celebrating. Any less and we’ll be talking massive tiebreak scenarios.
Thank god for computers.
Here are the Class S playoff picture heading into Thanksgiving Week.
Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for CLASS S
- Class S teams get 100 points for a victory over a Class S school. A win over any Class LL school is 130 points and a win over any Class L school is worth 120 and a win over any Class M is worth 110.
- Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
- The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
- Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.
TIEBREAKERS: If teams end up tied in playoff points, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head (only between two teams), then it goes to tiebreaker points, which is an aggregate of all your opponents’ victories. If it’s still tied, then the tiebreaker is whomever has beaten the highest seeded playoff opponent. If that’s not applicable, then it’s by lot, which has been predetermined by CIAC.
The teams are listed in their current order, with record and points accumulated so far.
Below that shows their remaining games, the guaranteed points it will get and then the bonus points available. Teams will earn 10 “bonus points” if the team with the asterisks wins, helping the total point potential.
Finally, the MAX portion of the points shows a team’s total potential with a victory. The MIN portion of the points shows a team’s total potential with a loss. The number of bonus games are shown next to it.
And THE SKINNY is what we think a team needs to climb up the ladder. By all means, let us know if we missed anything.
Top 8 are in. Everyone else can start thinking about hockey, basketball or wrestling. Or whatever.
The quarterfinals begin Tuesday, November 29 at 6:30 p.m. at the sites of the top seeds.
Awright? Let’s do this thing:
1. Capital Prep 9-0 1440
Guaranteed (10): Bassick v.Bull. Havens
Bonuses (50): Quinebaug* v.Killingly; ATI* v.Wolcott Tech/Housy/Wamogo; Harding* v.Bridg.Central; Vinal/E.Hamp./Goodwin* v.Wilcox Tech; Thames River* v.Woodstock
- Max = 1500 (166.67) – 1450 (161.11)
- THE SKINNY — Capital Prep has clinched a home quarterfinal is a solid bet for the No. 1 seed. If they get three of their bonus games, they’ll outpoint Ansonia for the top spot.
2. Ansonia 9-0 1390
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 v.Naugatuck (L-7w, 190 points)
Guaranteed (20): Holy Cross v.Wolcott; Oxford v.St.Paul
Bonuses (50): Gilbert/Northwestern v.Waterbury Career*; Torrington* v.Watertown; Crosby v.Kennedy*; Shelton v.Derby*; Woodland v.Seymour*
- Max = 1650 (165.0) – 1600 (160.0)
- Min = 1460 (146.0) – 1410 (141.0)
- THE SKINNY — Ansonia has clinched a home game and will most likely get the No. 2 seed with a victory over Naugatuck. They can drop as low as No. 4 with an unexpected loss.
3. Bloomfield 10-0 1450
Guaranteed (10): NW Catholic v.E.Catholic
Bonuses (60): Farmington v.Plainville*; RHAM* v.Bacon Acad.; Tolland* v.E.O. Smith; Cromwell/Portland v.Rocky Hill*; Simsbury v.Avon*; Rockville* v.S.Windsor
- Max = 1510 (151.0) – 1460 (146.0)
- THE SKINNY — Bloomfield’s regular season is finished. The Warhawks captured a home game and will be the No. 3, if Cromwell/Portland loses to Rocky Hill (or even the No. 2 if Ansonia also loses to Naugatuck). Bloomfield can fall to No. 4 if Cromwell/Portland beats Rocky Hill and bonuses go against it.
Updated Nov. 22
4. Cromwell/Portland 9-0 1270
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 v.Rocky Hill (S-8w, 180 points)
Guaranteed (10): Canton v.Granby; Coginchaug v.N.Branford;
Bonuses (40): Ellington* v.Cov./Wind.Tech/Bolt.; Morgan* v.Old Saybrook/Westbrook; Valley/OL* v.H-K; Nonnewaug v.Lewis Mills*
- Max = 1510 (151.0) – 1470 (147.0)
- Max = 1330 (133.0) – 1290 (129.0)
- THE SKINNY — Cromwell plays Rocky Hill in a game that will shape this whole class. If Cromwell wins, it can get as high as the No. 3 seed over Bloomfield (or higher if Ansonia somehow loses).A loss to Rocky Hill could drop Cromwell as low as the No. 8 seed, but most likely the No. 6 seed.
Win and In
5. Bullard-Havens 8-1 1140
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Bassick (L-4w, 160 points)
Guaranteed (20): ATI v.Wolcott Tech/Housy/Wamogo; Platt Tech v.O’Brien
Bonuses (30): Quinebaug* v.Killingly; Harding* v.Bridg.Central; Vinal/E.Hamp./Goodwin v.Wilcox Tech*
- Max = 1350 (135.0) – 1320 (132.0)
- Min = 1190 (119.0) – 1160 (116.0)
- THE SKINNY — Bullard-Havens will clinch a playoff spot with a victory over Bassick. It will probably be the No. 5 seed. If Bullard-Havens loses to Bassick, they’ll need Harding to beat Central and pray their 1170 points are enough to stay in the running for a playoff spot with a horde of other teams at the bottom of this list.
6. Stafford/Somers/East Windsor 8-1 1140
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 v.W.Locks/Suff./E.Gran (L-1w, 130 points)
Bonuses (70): Ellington v.Cov./Wind.Tech/Bolt.*; Gilbert/Northwestern* v.Waterbury Career; Canton v.Granby*; Coginchaug* v.N.Branford; Valley/OL v.H-K*; Nonnewaug* v.Lewis Mills; Morgan v.Old Saybrook/Westbrook*
- Max = 1340 (134.0) – 1270 (127.0)
- Min = 1210 (121.0) – 1140 (114.0)
- THE SKINNY — Stafford will clinch its first playoff berth by defeating Windsor Locks and would most likely be the No. 6 seed, or the No. 7 if Rocky Hill wins. If Stafford somehow loses, there’s still a chance but they’ll be tied up with a bunch of teams vying for one or two spots and will need at least 30 bonuses to come in to reach 1170. That’s not likely, so it’s best if Stafford just takes care of business.
7. Seymour 7-2 1130
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Woodland (S-1w, 110 points)
Guaranteed (10): Oxford v.St.Paul
Bonuses (50): S.Heart/Kaynor* v.Wilby; Ansonia v.Naugatuck*; Torrington* v.Watertown; Crosby v.Kennedy*; Shelton v.Derby*
- Max = 1300 (130.0) – 1250 (125.0)
- Min = 1190 (119.0) – 1140 (114.0)
- THE SKINNY — Seymour will qualify with a victory over Woodland, most likely as the No. 7 seed, or the No. 8 if Rocky Hill wins. A unlikely loss and Seymour will be dumped into a hornets nest of teams trying to qualify for one of the final spots. Seymour will likely top out at 1160 points, which probably won’t be enough to sneak in. They’ll need at least 1170.
8. Rocky Hill 8-1 1130
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Cromwell/Portland (S-9w, 190 points)
Guaranteed (10): NW Catholic v.E.Catholic
Bonuses (50): Farmington v.Plainville*; RHAM* v.Bacon Acad.; Tolland* v.E.O. Smith; Simsbury v.Avon*; Rockville* v.S.Windsor
- Max = 1380 (138.0) – 1330 (133.0)
- Min = 1190 (119.0) – 1140 (113.0)
- THE SKINNY — Rocky Hill will clinch the last state playoff spot with a victory over Cromwell/Portland on Thanksgiving Eve and will most likely bolt to the No. 4 seed. A loss and Rocky Hill will be in serious trouble. It will still be alive, but it will need at least three of its five bonus games to reach 1170 to have a prayer at competing with Oxford, Trinity and . More on that in a second…
Win and Pray
These teams all need to win, then hope one of the teams above somehow lose and then get enough bonus points. It’s extremely close.
9. Old Saybrook/Westbrook 7-2 990
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Morgan (S-6w, 160 points)
Bonuses (60): Ellington v.Cov./Wind.Tech/Bolt.*; Gilbert/Northwestern* v.Waterbury Career; Stafford/E. Windsor/Somers v.W.Locks/Suff./E.Gran*; Coginchaug* v.N.Branford; Valley/OL v.H-K*; Nonnewaug* v.Lewis Mills
- Max = 1210 (121.0) – 1150 (115.0)
10. Oxford 7-2 990
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 v.St.Paul (S-6w, 160 points)
Guaranteed (10): S.Heart/Kaynor v.Wilby
Bonuses (50): Holy Cross v.Wolcott*; Torrington v.Watertown*; Crosby* v.Kennedy; Shelton v.Derby*; Woodland* v.Seymour
- Max = 1210 (121.0) – 1160 (116.0)
- Min = 1050 (105.0) – 1000 (100.0)
Trinity Catholic 6-3 960
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 @Wilton (L-6w, 180 points)
Guaranteed (10): Stamford v.Westhill
Bonuses (40): Ffld.Warde v.Ffld.Ludlowe*; Harding v.Bridg.Central*; Danbury v.Ridgefield*; Norwalk* v.McMahon
- Max = 1190 (119.0) – 1150 (115.0)
THE SKINNY — Old Saybrook, Oxford and Trinity Catholic each need to win and then have Rocky Hill or Bullard-Havens or Seymour to lose to open the door ever so slightly.
Of the three, Oxford, perhaps, has the inside track getting in ahead of Trinity, OSW and even Rocky Hill.
The Wolverines will start with 1160 points, 10 crucial points ahead of OSW and Trinity and 20 ahead of Rocky Hill.
The magic number is 1180.
One victory by Wolcott over Holy Cross will get Oxford to 1170. If Crosby beats Kennedy to get Oxford to 1180, the Wolverines just might squeak in. 1180 would be extremely tough for Trinity, OSW and Rocky Hill to reach.
If Oxford doesn’t get to 1180, and any of the other teams reach 1170, everybody will have a puncher’s chance at getting in on tiebreakers.
See you next year
Windham 7-2 970
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Montville (S-2w, 120 points)
Guaranteed (20): Plainfield v.Griswold; Fitch v.Ledyard
Bonuses (50): Waterford v.East Lyme*; RHAM v.Bacon Acad.*; Thames River v.Woodstock*
- Max = 1140 (114.0) – 1100 (110.0)
- THE SKINNY — Windham would need a complete collapse by everyone and max out on bonuses to even dream of getting in.