Welcome BACK to the LA-BOR-ATORY.
OK, Class LL is done. Now, who’s going to reach the Class L playoffs? There are four spots left, two tha and two games — Middletown vs. Windsor and Platt vs. Maloney — that’ll directly impact the look of this race.
So once again, break out your abacuses, slide rules and calculators (yes, yes, you can use your phones for this quiz). It’s time to put your skills to the test.
We’ll do our best to break it all down for you.
Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for CLASS L:
- Class L teams get 100 points for a victory. A win over any Class LL school is 110 points.
- All league wins and wins vs. fellow Class L schools equal 100 points. Out-of-league wins over schools from lower divisions are less: Class L schools get 90 from an out-of-league win over a Class M school and 80 for a Class S win.
- Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
- The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
- Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.
TIEBREAKERS: If teams end up tied in playoff points, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head (only between two teams), then it goes to tiebreaker points, which is an aggregate of all your opponents’ victories. If it’s still tied, then the tiebreaker is whomever has beaten the highest seeded playoff opponent. If that’s not applicable, then it’s by lot, which has been predetermined by CIAC.
The teams are listed in their current order, with record and points accumulated so far.
Below that shows their remaining games, the guaranteed points it will get and then the bonus points available. Teams will earn 10 “bonus points” if the team with the asterisks wins, helping the total point potential.
Finally, the MAX portion of the points shows a team’s potential point range with a victory. The MIN portion of the points shows a team’s potential point range with a loss. The number of bonus games are shown next to it. Remember, the average is the most important part of these figures.
And THE SKINNY is what we think a team needs to climb up the ladder. By all means, let us know if we missed anything.
Top 8 get in. Everyone else can start thinking about hockey, basketball or wrestling. Or whatever.
All of these Class L scenarios were devised from Matt Fischer’s CIAC Playoff worksheet (aka the H.A.L. 9000). You can follow along at home in Class L here.
Let’s do this thing…
These teams have clinched home quarterfinals and are fighting for seeding.
1. New Canaan 9-0 1330
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 v.Darien (LL-9w, 200 points)
Guaranteed (10): Danbury v.Ridgefield
Bonuses (70): Ffld.Warde v.Ffld.Ludlowe*; Stamford v.Westhill*; Harding v.Bridg.Central*; Norwalk* v.McMahon; Wilton v.Trinity Cath.*; Trumbull* v.St. Joseph; Greenwich* v.Staples
- Max = 1610 (161.0) – 1530 (153.0)
- Min = 1410 (141.0) – 1330 (133.0)
- THE SKINNY — It’s pretty simple for the Rams. Beat Darien in the Turkey Bowl for the No. 1 seed. If they lose, they will fall no further than No. 3 since Windsor and Middletown play each other, and they could even get as high as No. 2 if New London loses.
2. New London 8-0 1270
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 v.NFA (LL-7w, 180 points)
Guaranteed (20): Fitch v.Ledyard, Waterford v.East Lyme
Bonuses (50): Quinebaug v.Killingly*; Montville* v.Windham; Wilbur Cross* v.Hillhouse; Plainfield v.Griswold*; Westerly (RI) v.Stonington*
- Max = 1530 (153.0) – 1450 (145.0)
- Max w Waterford = 1350 (135.0) – 1280 (128.0)
- THE SKINNY — New London has clinched a home quarterfinal. A victory over NFA would catapult it as high as No. 1 if New Canaan loses to Darien (if not, they’re No. 2). A loss to NFA and the Whalers would most likely be No. 3.
3. Windsor 9-0 1200
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Middletown (L-8w, 180 points)
Guaranteed (20): Brist.Cent. v.Brist.East.; Newington v.Wethersfield
Bonuses (50): NW Catholic* v.E.Catholic; Farmington* v.Plainville; Tolland v.E.O. Smith*; Hartford Pub.* v.Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver; Rockville v.S.Windsor*
- Max = 1450 (145.0) – 1400 (140.0)
- Min = 1270 (127.0) – 1220 (122.0)
- THE SKINNY — Windsor has already clinched a home game and a victory over Middletown would propel the Warriors anywhere between the top seed (if New Canaan and New London both lose) and as low as No. 3. Only a loss to Middletown would drop them to No. 4.
You’ve qualified, but a home quarterfinal remains up in the air.
4. Middletown 8-1 1120
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 v.Windsor (L-9w, 190 points)
Guaranteed (10): Maloney v.Platt
Bonuses (60): Brist.Cent. v.Brist.East.*; Newington v.Wethersfield*; Farmington* v.Plainville; Tolland v.E.O. Smith*; Hartford Pub.* v.Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver; Rockville v.S.Windsor*
- Max = 1380 (138.0) – 1320 (132.0)
- Min = 1190 (119.0) – 1130 (113.0)
- THE SKINNY — Middletown is in, but it hasn’t clinched a home quarterfinal yet. A victory over Windsor would clinch a home quarterfinal game and as high as the No. 1 seed if New Canaan and New London both lose, but most likely the No. 3 seed ahead of Windsor. A loss to Windsor and Middletown would still be in decent shape to capture the No. 4 seed and a home quarterfinal. But if Masuk beats Newtown, they could drop as low as No. 5. Fortunately, Middletown holds favorable bonus games, so it could hold off Masuk for that final home quarterfinal spot if a majority come through. Platt can’t catch Middletown because it shares the same bonus games.
Win and In
Just as it says. Win and you’re in the playoffs.
5. Platt 7-2 950
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 @Maloney (L-7w, 170 points)
Guaranteed (10): Newington v.Wethersfield
Bonuses (40): Brist.Cent. v.Brist.East.*; Tolland v.E.O. Smith*; Hartford Pub.* v.Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver; Rockville v.S.Windsor*
- Max = 1170 (117.0) – 1130 (113.0)
- Min = 1010 (101.0) – 960 (96.0)
- THE SKINNY — Platt plays fellow Class L contender Maloney in a crucial game in this playoff race. The winner will clinch a playoff spot. Should Platt win, it can get as high as No. 5, or could fall to No. 6 if Masuk beats Newtown. A loss, and Platt would only be out if Masuk, Naugatuck and NDWH win. If one or two of those teams lose, Platt will be in decent shape to possibly fend off Harding and/or Masuk (with a loss to Newtown) for one or two final spots.In that case, the Panthers would start with 960 after their loss. If they get two or more of its four bonus games (and many are favorable) they’re in great shape. Masuk and Harding will have a hard time getting higher than 970. If all of them tie at 970, it’ll come down to tiebreak points.
6. Masuk 7-2 940
Remaining Game(s): 11/23 @Newtown (LL-9w, 200 points)
Guaranteed (20): Pomperaug v.ND-Ffld; Barlow v.Weston
Bonuses (30): Brookfield* v.Bethel; Bunnell v.Stratford*; New.Fair. v.New Milford*
- Max = 1190 (119.0) – 1160 (116.0)
- Min = 990 (99.0) – 960 (96.0)
- THE SKINNY — Masuk plays undefeated Newtown on Thanksgiving Eve and a victory will clinch the team’s first playoff spot since 2012. There’s a remote chance for a home quarterfinal, too, if Windsor beats Middletown and most of Masuk’s bonus games come through. Masuk will most likely be looking at either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. In the event of a loss to Newtown, Masuk would fall into a fierce bonus fight with the Platt/Maloney loser and Harding for the final spot. Masuk will start at 960 and will need Brookfield, Stratford or New Milford to win to move higher. If they can get two to reach 980, they’ll be in great shape. If they can only get to 970, it’ll be close.
7. Maloney 7-2 920
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 v.Platt (L-7w, 170 points)
Guaranteed (20): Brist.Cent. v.Brist.East.; Newington v.Wethersfield
Bonuses (30): NW Catholic v.E.Catholic*; Farmington* v.Plainville; Hartford Pub.* v.Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver
- Max = 1140 (114.0) – 1110 (111.0)
- Min = 970 (97.0) – 940 (94.0)
- THE SKINNY — A victory over rival Platt in the Stoddard Bowl puts Maloney into the playoffs, most likely as the No. 5 or, more likely, the No. 6.A loss and Maloney will be in a bind. There will likely be two spots remaining (assuming a Notre Dame win over Hamden and Naugatuck loss to Ansonia), and it’ll come down to bonuses with Masuk and Harding.Unfortunately, unlike Platt, Maloney would start at 940 points, 20 behind Harding and Masuk. So Maloney would need all three of its bonus games come in to reach 970 and have any chance.The good news is the Spartans should get all of them. If that does happen, then Maloney could potentially tie Masuk and Harding for one of the final two spots at 970. If Harding or Masuk get higher than 970, it’s over.
8. Notre Dame-WH 6-3 880
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 @Hamden (LL-2w, 130 points)
Guaranteed (10): Daniel Hand v.Guilford
Bonuses (30): North Haven* v.Amity; West Haven v.Ffld.Prep*; Southington v.Cheshire*
- Max = 1050 (105.0) – 1020 (102.0)
- THE SKINNY — A likely victory over Hamden will clinch a playoff spot for the Green Knights, most likely as the No. 6 seed, unless Masuk wins, then it’s No. 7. If Both Naugatuck and Masuk win, it’ll be No. 8.Needless to say, a loss and Notre Dame is out.
9. Naugatuck 7-2 870
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 @Ansonia (S-9w, 190 points)
Guaranteed (10): Torrington v.Watertown
Bonuses (50): Gilbert/Northwestern v.Waterbury Career*; S.Heart/Kaynor v.Wilby*; Crosby* v.Kennedy; Shelton v.Derby*; Woodland* v.Seymour
- Max = 1120 (112.0) – 1070 (107.0)
- Min = 870 (87.0) – 820 (82.0)
- THE SKINNY — It’s pretty simple for Naugatuck, beat Ansonia and get in. It can get as high as the No. 6 seed. Lose and they’re out.
Win, send help
A simple victory won’t do the job. You’ll need bonus help or teams to lose or both.
10. Harding 6-3 820
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 v.Bridg.Central (LL-1w, 120 points)
Guaranteed (10): ATI v.Wolcott Tech/Housy/Wamogo
Bonuses (30): Bassick* v.Bull. Havens; Danbury* v.Ridgefield; Platt Tech* v.O’Brien
- Max = 990 (99.0) – 960 (96.0)
- THE SKINNY — Harding needs help. For starters, the Presidents needs to beat Central or they’re out. …Next, Harding will need as many bonuses as possible to get into position to challenge the Platt/Maloney loser and Masuk for one of the final two spots.The good news is Harding would start at 960. Then it would need Bassick to beat Bullard-Havens, Danbury to beat Ridgefield and Platt Tech to beat O’Brien Tech. If it can get one to reach 970 then it could be tiebreak time.
See you next year
11. Wilton 6-3 750
Remaining Game(s): 11/24 v.Trinity Cath. (S-6w, 160 points)
Guaranteed (10): Ffld.Warde v.Ffld.Ludlowe
Bonuses (40): Stamford* v.Westhill; Daniel Hand v.Guilford*; Danbury* v.Ridgefield; Norwalk v.McMahon*
- Max = 960 (96.0) – 920 (92.0)
- THE SKINNY — Wilton would be in the discussion if it beats Trinity Catholic, but given its bonus games, it has virtually no shot of outpointing any of the other contenders. It would more likely need Harding, Notre Dame-WH and Naugatuck lose. Good luck with that.