[aesop_image imgwidth=”720″ img=”http://www.gametimect.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Playoff-Graphic-1119.jpg” credit=”Sean Patrick Bowley” align=”left” lightbox=”on” caption=”The CIAC Football State Playoff Picture through Week 11 (Nov. 19, 2016)” captionposition=”left”]
Conard stunned HALL, 24-18, eliminating the Warriors from playoff contention and clearing up the congestion somewhat in the Class LL race.
As before, Shelton (vs. Derby), Ridgefield (vs. Danbury), NFA (vs. New London), Fairfield Prep (vs. West Haven) will all clinch playoff spots with victories.
But now the way is more clear for Cheshire to clinch a spot with a victory over Southington, should one of those teams lose.
If two of those teams lose, or if Cheshire and one of them lose, then the way is clear for Greenwich to clinch a spot with a victory over Staples.
Here’s a detailed look at the playoff picture.
Remember, ties are broken first by head-to-head (if between two teams) and then by tiebreaker points, which is the combined wins by all of your opponents.
Xavier, Glastonbury and Trumbull are still mathematically alive, but they would need NFA or Prep to lose (preferably Prep), and then Greenwich and Cheshire to lose to have any shot.
Of the three, Trumbull would have the easiest road. It would start with a 93.0 average if it beats St. Joseph, which will be plenty even without Trumbull’s four outstanding bonus games (Ludlowe, Westhill, Central, Trinity Catholic).
If Trumbull gets Prep, Cheshire and Greenwich, they’ll likely clinch. If Trumbull gets Prep and Cheshire, but Greenwich wins, then they’ll need NFA to lose and it will be a fight to the finish for bonus games. (It’s too close to even start describing it).
Meanwhile, Xavier and Glastonbury would also need Trumbull to lose to have a shot. Then it would come down to who gets the most bonus games. Xavier, which can max out with a 93.0 average, has the advantage.
However, two of its five bonus teams are NFA and Prep. Xavier won’t catch NFA (even if NFA loses to New London). But it will benefit from NFA beating New London. Xavier will also be counting on North Haven (vs. Amity), Hand (vs. Guilford) and Wilbur Cross (vs. Hillhouse).
Glastonbury, meanwhile, has two bonus teams remaining: Bulkeley (over Hartford Public) and Simsbury (over Avon) for a maximum average of 91.11. (Glastonbury plays nine games, so the average is important here).
Xavier can get to 920 (92.0) if all of its bonus teams win. If Xavier gets three of them, it can get to 91.0 it must hope Glastonbury is denied one of its bonus teams (Bulkeley, probably) to keep it below 91.0.
Back to the rest of the Class, with losses, Fairfield Prep, Greenwich and Cheshire would be finished.
The Top 4 teams — Darien, Southington, West Haven and Newtown — have already clinched quarterfinal home games.
Shelton and Ridgefield just need to beat Derby and Danbury, respectively, to clinch. In the unlikely event that either of them lose, they will still clinch if two of NFA, Prep, Cheshire or Greenwich lose.
Capital Prep‘s 44-30 victory over Prince Tech completed the Trailblazers’ season and put them in line to clinch — at worst — the No. 2 seed in Class S.
Capital Prep needs just a handful of its remaining five bonus games (ATI over Wolcott Tech/Housy/Wamogo, Thames River over Woodstock, Vinal over Wilcox Tech or Quinebaug over Killingly) to clinch the top seed over Ansonia.
Stafford/Somers/East Windsor‘s victory over Old Saybrook/Westbrook has put the Bulldogs one victory over 1-win Windsor Locks/Suffield/East Granby from qualifying.
Bullard-Havens gets in by beating Bassick on Wednesday night.
Seymour gets in by beating Woodland.
One spot will remain and Rocky Hill will claim it by defeating Cromwell/Portland on Wednesday.
Oxford, Old Saybrook/Westbrook and Trinity Catholic are all perilously close to being eliminated. Windham is mathematically alive, but will need a miracle.
They all need to win and then, at the very least, get one of Bullard-Havens, Stafford, Seymour or Rocky Hill to lose, and then pray they have enough bonus points to stay ahead of each other and whichever of those first teams lose.
Old Saybrook can get anywhere between 1150-1210 by beating Morgan with 60 bonus points (Coventry, Gilbert/NW, Windsor Locks, Coginchaug, HK and Nonnewaug. And they probably won’t get more than one of those).
Oxford can get anywhere between 1160-1210 by beating St. Paul. They have 50 bonus points available (Wolcott, Watertown, Crosby, Derby and Woodland). They, too, will probably get one, maybe two of those.
Trinity, beating Wilton, can get anywhere between 1150-1190 with 40 bonus games (Ludlowe, Central, Ridgefield and Norwalk). The Crusaders will probably get two of those to reach 1170.
Whoever gets to 1170 or even 1180 will then have to hope that’s enough to outpoint whichever team lost, Bullard-Havens, Stafford, Seymour or Rocky Hill.
Bullard-Havens can get anywhere between 1160-1190; Seymour anywhere between 1140-1190; Stafford anywhere between 1140-1210 and — most important — Rocky Hill can get anywhere between 1140-1190.
In short, it’s a long shot.
New Canaan, New London, Windsor and Middletown are all in.
The Platt/Maloney winner will clinch. Masuk will clinch with a victory over undefeated Newtown. Notre Dame-WH will clinch by beating Hamden, it’s out with a loss. Naugatuck will clinch by beating Ansonia. It’s out with a loss.
That will complete the field. But, of course, Masuk and Naugatuck winning would be upsets.
If Masuk loses, then the final spot will come down to it, the Platt/Maloney loser and Harding.
Masuk would start at 960, with three bonus teams and 30 points available to get it as high as 990: Brookfield (over Bethel), Stratford (over Bunnell), New Milford (over New Fairfield).
If Masuk gets one or two of those games, it’ll reach 970 or 980.
Platt has a much better chance at catching Masuk for the final spot. It will also start at 960 with a loss with 40 bonus teams available: Bristol Eastern (over Bristol Central), E.O. Smith (over Tolland), Hartford Public (over Bulkeley/Weaver), South Windsor (over Rockville).
If Maloney loses, then it will start at 940, with three bonus games outstanding: East Catholic (over NWC), Farmington (over Plainville), Hartford Public (over Bulkeley). They could conceivably get all three to get them to 970, potentially tying Masuk.
Harding is also in the mix if it beats Central. Harding would start at 960 and then hope for Bassick to beat Bullard-Havens, Danbury to beat Ridgefield and Platt Tech to beat O’Brien Tech. If it can get one to reach 970, we’ll have a mess.
This one is easy. New Fairfield will clinch the final spot by beating New Milford. If not, the door opens ever so slightly. Read more on this Class here.