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OLD SAYBROOK/WESTBROOK has forfeited its win over Stafford/East Windsor, which only affected Coginchaug’s playoff point potential. Coginchaug will still qualify with a win, but its chances at capturing the No. 7 seed have been lessened.
So who’s getting in? Who needs to win what and who to do what to advance to the state playoff round?
Unfortunately, footballers, there is math involved. Your teachers were right: You do need this stuff in real life.
So break out your abacuses, slide rules and calculators (yes, yes, you can use your phones for this quiz). It’s time to put your skills to the test.
We’ll do our best to break it all down for you.
Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for CLASS S:
- Class S teams get 100 points for a victory over a Class S school. A win over any Class LL school is 130 points and a win over any Class L school is worth 120 and a win over any Class M is worth 110.
- Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
- The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
- Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.
All of these scenarios were derived from Matt Fischer’s CIAC Playoff worksheet (aka the H.A.L. 9000).
REMEMBER: This is based on our paltry math skills. Be sure to let us know if something doesn’t jive. We’ll reexamine and fix it for the benefit of all. Thank you.
1. Capital/Class./Achieve 11-0 1790
Guaranteed (20): Abbott Tech vs. Wolcott Tech; O’Brien Tech vs. Platt Tech
Bonuses (50): Bull. Havens* vs. Bassick; Wilcox Tech* vs. Whitney Tech; E.Catholic vs. Cheney Tech*; Killingly vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis*; NFA vs. New London*
MAX = 1860 [169.09] – 1810 [164.55]
THE SKINNY – Cap Prep is the No. 1 seed and will be hosting someone at Dillon Stadium.
2. Ansonia 10-0 1520
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Naugatuck (L-9w)
Guaranteed (30): Wolcott vs. Holy Cross; Watertown vs. Torrington; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart
Bonuses (40): Masuk* vs. Newtown; Kennedy vs. Crosby*; Derby* vs. Shelton; Seymour* vs. Woodland
MAX = 1800 [163.64] – 1760 [160.00] MIN = 1590 [144.55] – 1550 [140.91]
THE SKINNY – An Ansonia victory over Naugatuck clinches the No. 2 seed. A loss and the Chargers are probably still the No. 2 seed unless a majority of Rocky Hill’s 80 bonus points come in.
3. Prince Tech 9-2 1370
Guaranteed (20): Abbott Tech vs. Wolcott Tech; Wilcox Tech vs. Whitney Tech
Bonuses (40): Bull. Havens* vs. Bassick;
O’Brien Tech vs. Platt Tech*; E.Catholic vs. Cheney Tech*; Killingly vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis*
MAX-MIN = 1420 [129.09] – 1390 [126.36]
THE SKINNY – Prince Tech is at No. 3 right, but it won’t be for long if/when Woodland, Rocky Hill and Morgan all win. That would drop Prince to a likely spot at No. 6, which is the farthest it can fall.
4. Woodland 9-1 1330
Remaining Game(s): 11/27 @Seymour (S-6w)
Guaranteed (10): Kennedy vs. Crosby
Bonuses (60): Branford* vs. East Haven;
Oxford vs. Pomperaug*; Derby* vs. Shelton; Watertown vs. Torrington*; Naugatuck* vs. Ansonia; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart*
MAX = 1550 [140.91 – 1500 [136.36] MIN = 1390 [126.36] – 1340 [121.82]
THE SKINNY – A win over Seymour and the Hawks will clinch a home quarterfinal. Bonus games will decide whether they or Rocky Hill clinch the regrettable No. 3 seed (which means Ansonia will probably await in the semifinals). The Hawks probably won’t get enough and they’ll be the No. 4 and avoid Ansonia until the final. They can fall as far as No. 6 with a loss.
5. Rocky Hill 9-1 1330
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @NW Catholic (S-7w)
Bonuses (80): New Britain vs. Berlin*; Wethersfield* vs. Newington; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Brist.East. vs. Brist.Cent.*; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; Plainville* vs. Farmington;
MAX = 1580 [143.64] – 1500 [136.36] MIN = 1410 [128.18] – 1330 [120.91]
THE SKINNY – Rocky Hill will clinch a home game with a victory over NWC. They can actually climb as high as No. 2 if Ansonia loses, but it’s basically between them and Woodland for the not-so-coveted No. 3 spot. A loss to NWC and they can fall as far as No. 5, which isn’t a bad move if they want to avoid Ansonia until the final.
6. Morgan 8-1 1260
Remaining Game(s): v.Old Saybrook/Westbrook (S-4w)
Guaranteed (20): Hyde vs. N.Branford; W. Locks/Suffield/E. Granby vs. Stafford/East Windsor
H-K* vs. Valley/Old Lyme; Gilbert/NW vs. Housatonic/Wamogo*; Lewis Mills* vs. Nonnewaug; Cromwell vs. Coginchaug*; SMSA/University* vs. Enfield
MAX = 1460 [132.73] – 1430 [130.00] MIN = 1310 [119.09]- 1280 [116.36]
THE SKINNY [updated] – A win over OSW and Morgan will most likely be the No. 5 seed unless Rocky Hill or Woodland lose. Then they can move up as high as No. 3. A loss to OSW, and they’ll likely drop to No. 6.
JUST WIN, BABY!
7. Bloomfield 8-2 1230
Bonuses (80): New Britain vs. Berlin*; NW Catholic* vs. Rocky Hill; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; Plainville* vs. Farmington; Manchester vs. E.Hartford*
MAX = 1310 [119.09] – 1230 [111.82]
THE SKINNY – Bloomfield is basically in. The Warhawks need just one bonus game to make sure Holy Cross can’t max out and catch them. They can get as high as the No. 6 seed over Morgan if enough of their 80 bonus points come in. They probably won’t. That also means they could drop as low as No. 8 if Coginchaug wins and gets many of its bonus games.
8. Coginchaug 8-2 1090 [updated w OSW forfeit]
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Cromwell (S-4w)
Guaranteed (10): Hyde vs. N.Branford
H-K* vs. Valley/Old Lyme; Granby* vs. Canton; Gilbert/NW vs. Housatonic/Wamogo*; Lewis Mills* vs. Nonnewaug; Morgan vs. Old Saybrook/Westbrook*; SMSA/University* vs. Enfield
MAX = 1280 [116.36] – 1240 [112.73] MIN = 1140 [103.64] – 1100 [100.00]
THE SKINNY – Just beat Cromwell and Coginchaug is in. It’ll probably be the No. 8 seed, but there’s a chance it can get No. 7 (made less of a chance by OSW’s forfeit to Stafford/East Windsor). A loss opens the door for Holy Cross. Should Holy Cross lose, Coginchaug would be in a bonus points race with Canton (with a win over ) and NWC (with a win over Rocky Hill)
UH, A LITTLE HELP HERE?
Holy Cross 7-3 1000
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Wolcott (M-7w)
Guaranteed (10): Watertown vs. Torrington
Bonuses (40): Kennedy* vs. Crosby; Seymour vs. Woodland*; Weston* vs. Joel Barlow; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart*
MAX = 1230 [111.82] – 1190 [108.18] MIN = 1050 [95.45] – 1010 [91.82]
THE SKINNY – Holy Cross needs to just win and pray Coginchaug loses. Then they’ll be dancing.
12. Canton 7-3 970
Remaining Game(s): 11/27 @Granby (M-4w)
Guaranteed (10): Lewis Mills vs. Nonnewaug;
H-K* vs. Valley/Old Lyme; Gilbert/NW vs. Housatonic/Wamogo*; Cov./Wind. Tech/Bolton* vs. Ell./Somers; SMSA/University vs. Enfield*
MAX = 1160 [105.45] – 1130 [102.73]
THE SKINNY – Would need Coginchaug and Holy Cross to lose to be in decent position. It would then still have to outpoint Coginchaug. If Enfield and Coventry/WT/B win, then they’ll be in (Enfield won). Unless NWC comes out of nowhere to steal a spot on bonuses.
NW Catholic 7-3 910
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Rocky Hill (S-9w)
Bonuses (70): New Britain vs. Berlin*; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Wilcox Tech* vs. Whitney Tech; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; Plainville* vs. Farmington
MAX = 1170 [106.36] – 1100 [100.00]
THE SKINNY: Needs to win and have Holy Cross, Canton, Coginchaug to lose and hope to beat BOTH Coginchaug and Canton on bonuses. Looking at the bonuses… good luck.