It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad, mad CIAC playoff scenario: CLASS S [updated Wednesday]

Ansonia's Arkeel Newsome runs from Woodland's Levi Fancher in the NVL title game. The two teams are both top contenders in Class S. (Mara Lavitt — New Haven Register)

Ansonia’s Arkeel Newsome runs from Woodland’s Levi Fancher in the NVL title game. The two teams are both top contenders in Class S. (Mara Lavitt — New Haven Register)

Latest updates in maroon.

OLD SAYBROOK/WESTBROOK has forfeited its win over Stafford/East Windsor, which only affected Coginchaug’s playoff point potential. Coginchaug will still qualify with a win, but its chances at capturing the No. 7 seed have been lessened.

ORIGINAL POST

Playoff point potentials for the Class S playoff contestants based on bonus points after a win (upper bar) or a loss (lower bar). Click for larger view.

Playoff point potentials for the Class S playoff contestants based on bonus points after a win (upper bar) or a loss (lower bar). Click for larger view.

So who’s getting in? Who needs to win what and who to do what to advance to the state playoff round?

Unfortunately, footballers, there is math involved. Your teachers were right: You do need this stuff in real life.

So break out your abacuses, slide rules and calculators (yes, yes, you can use your phones for this quiz). It’s time to put your skills to the test.

We’ll do our best to break it all down for you.

Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for CLASS S:

  • Class S teams get 100 points for a victory over a Class S school. A win over any Class LL school is 130 points and a win over any Class L school is worth 120 and a win over any Class M is worth 110.
  • Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
  • The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
  • Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.

All of these scenarios were derived from Matt Fischer’s CIAC Playoff worksheet (aka the H.A.L. 9000).

Here’s the CLASS S worksheet.

REMEMBER: This is based on our paltry math skills. Be sure to let us know if something doesn’t jive. We’ll reexamine and fix it for the benefit of all. Thank you.

OTHER SCENARIOS: CLASS LL | CLASS L | CLASS M 

HOME COOKIN’

Capital Prep1. Capital/Class./Achieve 11-0 1790

Guaranteed (20): Abbott Tech vs. Wolcott Tech; O’Brien Tech vs. Platt Tech
Bonuses (50):  Bull. Havens* vs. Bassick; Wilcox Tech* vs. Whitney Tech; E.Catholic vs. Cheney Tech*; Killingly vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis*; NFA vs. New London*

MAX = 1860 [169.09] – 1810 [164.55]

THE SKINNY – Cap Prep is the No. 1 seed and will be hosting someone at Dillon Stadium.

ansonia-ct2. Ansonia 10-0 1520

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Naugatuck (L-9w)
Guaranteed (30): Wolcott vs. Holy Cross; Watertown vs. Torrington; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart
Bonuses (40): Masuk* vs. Newtown; Kennedy vs. Crosby*; Derby* vs. Shelton; Seymour* vs. Woodland

MAX = 1800 [163.64] – 1760 [160.00]
MIN = 1590 [144.55] – 1550 [140.91]

THE SKINNY – An Ansonia victory over Naugatuck clinches the No. 2 seed. A loss and the Chargers are probably still the No. 2 seed unless a majority of Rocky Hill’s 80 bonus points come in.

THEY’RE IN!

AI-prince-tech-ct3. Prince Tech 9-2 1370 

Guaranteed (20): Abbott Tech vs. Wolcott Tech; Wilcox Tech vs. Whitney Tech
Bonuses (40): Bull. Havens* vs. Bassick; O’Brien Tech vs. Platt Tech*; E.Catholic vs. Cheney Tech*; Killingly vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis*
MAX-MIN = 1420 [129.09] – 1390 [126.36]

THE SKINNY – Prince Tech is at No. 3 right, but it won’t be for long if/when Woodland, Rocky Hill and Morgan all win. That would drop Prince to a likely spot at No. 6, which is the farthest it can fall.

woodland-regional-ct4. Woodland 9-1 1330   

Remaining Game(s): 11/27 @Seymour (S-6w)
Guaranteed (10): Kennedy vs. Crosby
Bonuses (60): Branford* vs. East Haven; Oxford vs. Pomperaug*; Derby* vs. Shelton; Watertown vs. Torrington*; Naugatuck* vs. Ansonia; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart*

MAX = 1550 [140.91 – 1500 [136.36]
MIN = 1390 [126.36] – 1340 [121.82]

THE SKINNY – A win over Seymour and the Hawks will clinch a home quarterfinal. Bonus games will decide whether they or Rocky Hill clinch the regrettable No. 3 seed (which means Ansonia will probably await in the semifinals). The Hawks probably won’t get enough and they’ll be the No. 4 and avoid Ansonia until the final. They can fall as far as No. 6 with a loss.

rock-hill-ct5. Rocky Hill 9-1 1330

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @NW Catholic (S-7w)
Bonuses (80): New Britain vs. Berlin*; Wethersfield* vs. Newington; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Brist.East. vs. Brist.Cent.*; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; Plainville* vs. Farmington;

MAX = 1580 [143.64] – 1500 [136.36]
MIN = 1410 [128.18] – 1330 [120.91]

THE SKINNY – Rocky Hill will clinch a home game with a victory over NWC. They can actually climb as high as No. 2 if Ansonia loses, but it’s basically between them and Woodland for the not-so-coveted No. 3 spot. A loss to NWC and they can fall as far as No. 5, which isn’t a bad move if they want to avoid Ansonia until the final.

Morgan6. Morgan 8-1 1260

Remaining Game(s):  v.Old Saybrook/Westbrook (S-4w)
Guaranteed (20): Hyde vs. N.Branford; W. Locks/Suffield/E. Granby vs. Stafford/East Windsor
Bonuses (30): H-K* vs. Valley/Old Lyme; Gilbert/NW vs. Housatonic/Wamogo*; Lewis Mills* vs. Nonnewaug; Cromwell vs. Coginchaug*; SMSA/University* vs. Enfield

MAX = 1460 [132.73] – 1430 [130.00]
MIN = 1310 [119.09]- 1280 [116.36]

THE SKINNY [updated]A win over OSW and Morgan will most likely be the No. 5 seed unless Rocky Hill or Woodland lose. Then they can move up as high as No. 3. A loss to OSW, and they’ll likely drop to No. 6.

JUST WIN, BABY!

bloomfield-ct7. Bloomfield 8-2 1230

Bonuses (80): New Britain vs. Berlin*; NW Catholic* vs. Rocky Hill; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; Plainville* vs. Farmington; Manchester vs. E.Hartford*                                                               

MAX = 1310 [119.09] – 1230 [111.82]

THE SKINNY – Bloomfield is basically in. The Warhawks need just one bonus game to make sure Holy Cross can’t max out and catch them. They can get as high as the No. 6 seed over Morgan if enough of their 80 bonus points come in. They probably won’t. That also means they could drop as low as No. 8 if Coginchaug wins and gets many of its bonus games.

Coginchaug

8. Coginchaug 8-2 1090 [updated w OSW forfeit]

Remaining Game(s):  11/28 @Cromwell (S-4w)
Guaranteed (10): Hyde vs. N.Branford
Bonuses (40): H-K* vs. Valley/Old Lyme; Granby* vs. Canton; Gilbert/NW vs. Housatonic/Wamogo*; Lewis Mills* vs. Nonnewaug; Morgan vs. Old Saybrook/Westbrook*; SMSA/University* vs. Enfield

MAX = 1280 [116.36] – 1240 [112.73]
MIN  = 1140 [103.64] – 1100 [100.00]

THE SKINNY – Just beat Cromwell and Coginchaug is in. It’ll probably be the No. 8 seed, but there’s a chance it can get No. 7 (made less of a chance by OSW’s forfeit to Stafford/East Windsor). A loss opens the door for Holy Cross. Should Holy Cross lose, Coginchaug would be in a bonus points race with Canton (with a win over ) and NWC (with a win over Rocky Hill)

UH, A LITTLE HELP HERE?

Holy CrossHoly Cross 7-3 1000

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Wolcott (M-7w)
Guaranteed (10): Watertown vs. Torrington
Bonuses (40): Kennedy* vs. Crosby; Seymour vs. Woodland*; Weston* vs. Joel Barlow; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart*

MAX = 1230 [111.82] – 1190 [108.18]
MIN = 1050 [95.45] – 1010 [91.82]

THE SKINNY – Holy Cross needs to just win and pray Coginchaug loses. Then they’ll be dancing.

Canton12.  Canton 7-3 970

Remaining Game(s):  11/27 @Granby (M-4w)
Guaranteed (10): Lewis Mills vs. Nonnewaug;
Bonuses (20): H-K* vs. Valley/Old Lyme; Gilbert/NW vs. Housatonic/Wamogo*; Cov./Wind. Tech/Bolton* vs. Ell./Somers; SMSA/University vs. Enfield*

MAX = 1160 [105.45] – 1130 [102.73]

THE SKINNY – Would need Coginchaug and Holy Cross to lose to be in decent position. It would then still have to outpoint Coginchaug. If Enfield and Coventry/WT/B win, then they’ll be in (Enfield won). Unless NWC comes out of nowhere to steal a spot on bonuses.

‘HAIL, MARY…’

Stock football helmetsNW Catholic 7-3 910

Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Rocky Hill (S-9w)
Bonuses (70): New Britain vs. Berlin*; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Wilcox Tech* vs. Whitney Tech; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; Plainville* vs. Farmington

MAX = 1170 [106.36] – 1100 [100.00]

THE SKINNY: Needs to win and have Holy Cross, Canton, Coginchaug to lose and hope to beat BOTH Coginchaug and Canton on bonuses. Looking at the bonuses… good luck.

Comments

  1. Jim B says

    I think Prince Tech drops to 6th no matter what. Unless OS/W beats Morgan (highly unlikely), they are going to end up with 1430 points minimum which beats Prince’s top of 1420. Prince Tech dropping to sixth and 4 thru 6 on moving up one slot is my best guess

  2. Mooki says

    Morgan get a home game if they beat OSW and EITHER NWC win over Rocky Hill or Seymour win over Woodland, right? They should be at least a 5 with a win and potentially a 4.. or even 3, if both of those other games come in, though that’s a real longshot.

    • Sean Patrick BowleySean Patrick Bowley says

      @mooki – they should be the No. 5. If either of those teams lose, it can get 4, yes. If both, then No. 3.

      • Jim B says

        I am in complete agreement with your updated comments. I don’t think there is any way Ansonia doesn’t win it all, but I hope Coginchaug beats Capital. They turned their season around big time and can do it. I also hope Morgan makes it to the final vs. Ansonia. I am most definitely in the minority, but that’s what I hope for just the same.

        • Pequot says

          Coginchaug (assuming they beat Cromwell) won’t get Capital Prep. They’ll get Ansonia and Bloomfield will luck out and get Capital Prep.

  3. New York East says

    Who wouldn’t want to see an Ansonia/Morgan matchup pitting the two best RBs in the state going
    head to head! (Mr. Newsome, meet Mr. Ward; Mr. Ward, Mr. Newsome)!!

    • Jim B says

      Morgan makes it there this year but loses an extremely hard fought game. They make it there again next year when most of their team is back (and after getting revenge on Valley Regional during the regular season), and win it. That is my prediction.

      • pequot conspiracy theory says

        i don’t know, man. maybe it’s just the tinfoil hat, but i’m pretty sure the powers that be know that a valley regional win is good for business, and thus will nudge the refs to officiate the game the ‘right’ way.

        this is the problem with connecticut high school sports, man. its all about the big market teams.

  4. pequot conspiracy theory says

    maybe its just me but i feel like coginchaug is thrilled that OSW forfeitted. #7′s the spot you don’t want to be in…

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