It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad, mad CIAC playoff scenario: CLASS LL [updated]

The Class LL field hinges on Fairfield Prep. Colton Smith (2) and the Jesuits must best West Haven to qualify for the state playoffs. Otherwise, it'll open the door for other lucky contestants. Photo John Vanacore — for the Register

The Class LL field hinges on Fairfield Prep. Colton Smith (2) and the Jesuits must best West Haven to qualify for the state playoffs. Otherwise, it’ll open the door for other lucky contestants. Photo John Vanacore — for the Register

UPDATE (Monday, 9 p.m.): Woah. We were a tad off in figuring out Class LL.

Here’s what you need to know: Staples and Prep are in line to clinch with victories. If one loses, the door opens for Trumbull or Ridgefield if either win. If both win, they’ll be in a bonus fight with Ridgefield holding the more favorable bonuses. If both Prep and Staples lose, Ridgefield and Trumbull would be next in line with victories. One of those two would have to lose to give Xavier a chance to get in.

All new edits are in MAROON.

OK. Carry on.

ORIGINAL POST

Today is the first day of the rest of the season. Thanksgiving, the greatest sporting day of the Connecticut sports calendar, is mere days away.

It signals the end of the season for most of our contestants. This is your Super Bowl, kids, so make it count.

But for few lucky contestants, it’s time to see who gets to advance to the bonus round, aka the state playoffs, to  play for the grand prize: a trip to lovely, hard-hittin’ New Britain and the glorious confines of Arute Field for the state championship.

So who’s getting in? Who needs to win what and who to do what to advance to the state playoff round?

Playoff point potentials for the Class LL playoff contestants based on bonus points after a win (upper bar) or a loss (lower bar). Click for larger view.

Playoff point potentials for the Class LL playoff contestants based on bonus points after a win (upper bar) or a loss (lower bar). Click for larger view.

Unfortunately, footballers, there is math involved. Your teachers were right: You do need this stuff in real life.

So break out your abacuses, slide rules and calculators (yes, yes, you can use your phones for this quiz). It’s time to put your skills to the test.

We’ll do our best to break it all down for you.

Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for Class LL:

  • Teams get 100 points for a victory.
  • Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
  • All league wins and wins vs. fellow Class LL schools equal 100 points. Out-of-league wins over schools from lower divisions are less: Class LL schools get 90 from an out-of-league win over a Class L school, 80 from a Class M win and 70 for a Class S win.
  • The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
  • Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.

All of these scenarios were taken from Matt Fischer’s CIAC Playoff worksheet (aka the H.A.L. 9000).

Here’s the CLASS LL worksheet.

OTHER SCENARIOS: CLASS L CLASS M | CLASS S

REMEMBER: These are based on our paltry math skills. If you notice anything amiss, please let us know.

HOME COOKIN’

Newtown new1. Newtown 10-0 1510

  • Remaining Game: 11/26 @Masuk (L-7w)
  • Guaranteed (30): New Milford vs. New.Fair.; Bethel vs. Brookfield; Weston vs. Joel Barlow
  • Bonuses (30): Wolcott (vs. Holy Cross); Pomperaug (v Oxford); Stratford (vs. Bunnell)

Max = 1750 [159.09 - 1720 [155.45]
Min  = 1570 [142.72] – 1540 [140.00]

THE SKINNY – Earned a home quarterfinal. Beat Masuk and it’ll be the top seed. A loss will only drop the Hawks as low as No. 3.

Glastonbury4. Glastonbury 10-1 1460

  • Guaranteed (10): Manchester vs. E.Hartford
  • Bonuses (50): New Britain* vs. Berlin; Wethersfield vs. Newington*; S.Windsor* vs. Rockville; Windsor* vs. Middletown; NFA* vs. New London

MAX = 1520 [138.18] – 1470 [133.64]

THE SKINNY – The Tomahawks have clinched a home quarterfinal.  It will be the No. 4 seed unless teams above them lose. It’ll move up a notch every time one does.

THEY’RE IN

norwich-free-ct2. NFA      8-1   1240

  • Remaining Game: 11/28 v.New London (L-8w)
  • Guaranteed (10): Ledyard vs. Fitch
  • Bonuses (50): Windham* (vs. Bacon Acad.); Montville* (vs. St. Bern./Norw. Tech); East Lyme* (vs. Waterford;) Stonington* (vs. Westerly (RI); Killingly* (vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis); Windham* (vs. Woodstock).

Max = 1480 [148.00] – 1430 [143.00]
Min = 1300 [130.0] – 1250 [125.00]

THE SKINNY – A win over New London will give the Wildcats a home quarterfinal (played somewhere else because no lights on campus). They can reach as high as No. 2 if all of their bonus games come in, but will likely be No. 3.

westhaven-ct3. West Haven 9-1   1370

  • Remaining: 11/28 @Ffld.Prep (LL-8w)
  • Guaranteed (20): Guilford vs. Daniel Hand; Hamden vs. ND-WH
  • Bonuses (40): Derby vs. Shelton*; Hillhouse vs. Wilbur Cross*; Cheshire* vs. Southington; Jonathan Law vs. Foran*

Max = 1610 [146.36] – 1570 [142.72]
Min = 1430 [130.00] – 1390 [126.36]

THE SKINNY – Westies will get a home quarterfinal with a victory, probably as the No. 2 seed, though there’s a slight chance they could drop to No. 3.

Hall5. Hall 9-1   1260

  • Guaranteed (10): Manchester vs. E.Hartford
  • Bonuses (60): New Britain* vs. Berlin; Wethersfield vs. Newington*; S.Windsor* vs. Rockville; Weaver vs. Hartford Pub.*; Glastonbury vs. Simsbury*; Cheshire vs. Southington*

MAX = 1330 [133.00] – 1270 [127.0]

THE SKINNY [edited] – Finished with regular season. It will likely be the No. 5 seed. Its only chance at a home game is NFA or West Haven lose. It can’t eclipse Glastonbury.

JUST WIN, BABY!

southington-ct6. Southington 8-1 1120                                   

  • Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Cheshire (LL-4w)
  • Guaranteed (20): Glastonbury vs. Simsbury; Manchester vs. E.Hartford
  • Bonuses (30): New Britain* vs. Berlin; Wethersfield vs. Newington*; S.Windsor* vs. Rockville

MAX = 1310 [131.0] – 1280 [128.0]
MIN = 1170 [117.0]- 1140 [114.0]

 THE SKINNY [updated] – Win and Southington will likely clinch the No. 6 seed. It can as high as No. 4 if NFA and West Haven lose. But it can’t surpass Glastonbury or Hall. Lose, and it would be hoping two of Staples, Prep, Ridgefield and Trumbull lose.

UH, LITTLE HELP HERE

(not so much, Prep)

ridgefield-ct 7. Ridgefield 8-2 1120                                 

  • Remaining Game(s): 11/27 v. Danbury (LL-3w)
  • Guaranteed (10): McMahon vs. Norwalk
  • Bonuses (60): Hamden vs. ND-WH*; Bridg.Central vs. Harding*; Ffld.Ludlowe* vs. Ffld.Warde; Westhill vs. Stamford*; Cheshire* vs. Southington; Trinity Cath. vs. Wilton*

MAX = 1320 [120.0] – 1260 [114.55]
MIN = 1190 [108.18] – 1130 [102.73]

THE SKINNY [UPDATED] – Ridgefield must beat Danbury. Then it needs to get Southington, Prep or Staples to lose to assure a spot. They’d prefer Fairfield Prep.

If Prep doesn’t lose, Ridgefield needs Staples to lose. If Stapes doesn’t lose, Ridgefield can still get in but it would have to be with massive bonus help.

Ridgefield couldn’t catch Staples if the Wreckers get to 1310 points, and that’s likely.

The only other way in is if Southington loses.

 

fairfield-college-prep-ct8. Fairfield Prep 8-2 1110                                   

  • Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v. West Haven (LL-9w)
  • Guaranteed (10): Hamden vs. ND-WH
  • Bonuses (50): Branford* vs. East Haven; Amity* vs. North Haven; Derby vs. Shelton*; Westhill vs. Stamford*; Cheshire* vs. Southington. …

MAX = 1360 [123.64] – 1310 [119.09]
MIN = 1170 [107.27] – 1120 [101.82]

THE SKINNY – Win and Prep’s just about in. They’d need just two bonus games to clinch, or they would clinch if Southington lost. Its bonus games aren’t favorable. But teams would have to get a majority of their bonus games just to catch the Jesuits. Lose and Prep is done. Should Prep win, it would likely be the No. 7 seed.

Staples new9. Staples     8-2   1110 [UPDATED]

  • Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v. Greenwich (LL-7w)
  • Guaranteed (10): Westhill vs. Stamford
  • Bonuses (60): St. Joseph vs. Trumbull*; Bridg.Central* vs. Harding; Ffld.Ludlowe* vs. Ffld.Warde; Ridgefield vs. Danbury*; McMahon vs. Norwalk*; Trinity Cath. vs. Wilton*

MAX = 1350 [122.73] – 1290 [117.27]
MIN = 1180 [107.27] – 1120 [101.82]

THE SKINNY [updated] – The Wreckers are actually in a great spot.

They’re just about in with a victory over Greenwich if they get two  bonuses, which would keep them far ahead of Ridgefield.

Trumbull can’t catch the Wreckers. The Wreckers would likely be the No. 8 seed and head to Newtown with a win.

If it comes down to one playoff spot and Staples gets to 1310, then Ridgefield can’t catch them.

xavier-ct10. Xavier  7-3   1070

  • Guaranteed (10): Hamden vs. ND-WH
  • Bonuses (50): Guilford vs. Daniel Hand*; Amity* vs. North Haven; Derby vs. Shelton*; Hillhouse* vs. Wilbur Cross; Staples* vs. Greenwich

MAX = 1130 [113.0] – 1080 [108.0]

THE SKINNY – The Falcons need THREE of Prep, Staples, Trumbull and Ridgefield to lose. Xavier would only then have to hope enough of its bonus teams, Hand, Amity, Shelton and Hillhouse win. Despite beating Staples, Xavier would prefer the Wreckers lose so it increases Xavier’s chances at qualifying. There’s only a slight chance McMahon can catch Xavier.

Stock football helmets11. Trumbull 8-2   1070                                            

  • Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @St. Joseph (M-9w)
  • Guaranteed (10): Westhill vs. Stamford
  • Bonuses (60): Bridg.Central* vs. Harding; Ffld.Ludlowe vs. Ffld.Warde*; Ridgefield vs. Danbury*; McMahon vs. Norwalk*; Staples vs. Greenwich*; Trinity Cath. vs. Wilton*

MAX = 1330 [120.91] – 1270 [115.45]
MIN =  1140 [103.64] – 1080 [98.18]

THE SKINNY – Trumbull needs to win and get two of Prep, Staples, and Southington to lose. If one spot comes down to Trumbull and Ridgefield, the Eagles could surpass Ridgefield mathematically but their bonus games aren’t favorable.

McMahon12. McMahon         7-2   920                                     

  • Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Norwalk (LL-4w)
  • Guaranteed (20): Bridg.Central vs. Harding; Westhill vs. Stamford
  • Bonuses (30): Ffld.Ludlowe* vs. Ffld.Warde; Hillhouse vs. Wilbur Cross*; Ridgefield vs. Danbury*

MAX = 1110 [111.00] – 1080 [108.0]

THE SKINNY – Win and get serious, serious help: Ridgefield, Staples, Trumbull, Prep all need to lose. If all but one of them lose, then McMahon’s got to hope it can outpoint Xavier. McMahon can get anywhere between 1080 and 1110 points with wins from Ludlowe, Cross (which would deny Xavier 10) and Danbury. Xavier can get to 1130 with wins by Hand, Hillhouse (which would deny McMahon 10), Amity, Shelton and Staples.

GreenwichGreenwich 7-3 940

Remaining Game: 11/28 @Staples (LL-8w)
Bonuses (70): Ffld.Prep vs. West Haven*; Bridg.Central* vs. Harding; Ffld.Ludlowe vs. Ffld.Warde*; Ridgefield vs. Danbury*; McMahon vs. Norwalk*; Westhill* vs. Stamford; Trinity Cath.* vs. Wilton

THE SKINNY – Everybody above would have to lose. Even then, it would come down to bonuses. Greenwich is cooked.

Comments

  1. Rod Hyde says

    Hall has a lock on no worse than the 5th seed. A Southington win, and their guaranteed bonus points gets them to 1280. Hall has 10 guaranteed BPs, and would pick up 10 with a Southington victory (for 1280 points as well), and win out on the head-to-head tie breaker. Southington’s three remaining potential bonus games are also opportunities for Hall, so they can’t gain anything there, and Hall has 2 additional possible BP games.

        • Sean Patrick BowleySean Patrick Bowley says

          Thanks. Note on the Chart: It was tough to accurately represent teams with only 10 games. So I placed their bars as close to the number as possible and noted what their actual average would be at that spot.

          Also, the bottom of each bar represents 0 bonus help.

  2. UJake says

    I’m probably missing something with the potential points games, but if Southington loses, and so do Ridgefield, Prep, Trumbull, and Staples, how does that knock Xavier out? Which team passes them in that scenario? I understand it would help Prep and Ridgefield, but they’d still max out below the 111 Xavier will likely end at (that doesn’t include points for Amity, or for Staples).

  3. Sean Patrick BowleySean Patrick Bowley says

    Incidentally, it bugs the hell out of me that I can’t shrink these helmets. Guess I’ll have to shrink em all via Photoshop and re-upload

  4. mooncake says

    Sean, Yes if Staples wins they are in good shape. They should get enough bonus points to beat ridgefield if prep wins. But be careful, not all the bonus games are slam dunks. Especially westhill vs stamford. If favored westhill loses and all the other games go as as planned, ridgefield ties staples and wins on bonus points.

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