[Updated with Tuesday results. Updates in maroon — including updated scenarios for Hand, Eastern and North Haven]
Who’s going to reach the Class L playoffs? Who needs to win what and who to do what to advance to the state playoff round?
Unfortunately, footballers, there is math involved. Your teachers were right: You do need this stuff in real life.
So break out your abacuses, slide rules and calculators (yes, yes, you can use your phones for this quiz). It’s time to put your skills to the test.
We’ll do our best to break it all down for you.
Here’s how the CIAC’s state playoff formula works for CLASS L:
- Class L teams get 100 points for a victory. A win over any Class LL school is 110 points.
- All league wins and wins vs. fellow Class L schools equal 100 points. Out-of-league wins over schools from lower divisions are less: Class L schools get 90 from an out-of-league win over a Class M school and 80 for a Class S win.
- Teams get 10 points for every defeated opponents’ victory (These are called ‘bonus points.’ When a team has beaten both teams of a Thanksgiving matchup, those 10 point are ‘guaranteed.’)
- The total points are divided by the number of games played to get your average.
- Top eight averages reach the state playoffs. Top four averages get home quarterfinal games.
All of these scenarios were taken from Matt Fischer’s CIAC Playoff worksheet (aka the H.A.L. 9000).
1. New Canaan 10-0 1480
- Remaining Game: 11/28 v.Darien (L-9w)
- Guaranteed (20): Staples vs. Greenwich; Trinity Cath. vs. Wilton
- Bonuses (50): St. Joseph* vs. Trumbull; Guilford vs. Daniel Hand*; Ffld.Ludlowe vs. Ffld.Warde*; Bull. Havens vs. Bassick*; Ridgefield vs. Danbury*
MAX = 1740 [158.18] – 1690 [153.64] MIN = 1550 [140.91] – 1500 [136.36]
THE SKINNY – Beat Darien, get home quarterfinal at Dunning Fiend and the top seed. Lose and it could drop as low as the No. 4 seed.
2. Platt 10-0 1440
- Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Maloney (L-1w)
- Guaranteed (10): NW Catholic vs. Rocky Hill
- Bonuses (70): New Britain vs. Berlin*; S.Windsor vs. Rockville*; E.O. Smith vs. Tolland*; Weaver* vs. Hartford Pub.; E.Catholic* vs. Cheney Tech; East Lyme vs. Waterford*; Plainville* vs. Farmington
MAX = 1630 [148.18] – 1560 [141.82] MIN = 1520 [138.18] – 1450 [131.82]
THE SKINNY – Beat Maloney and they’ll clinch a home quarterfinal as the No. 2 seed. Lose and they’d need bonus help to stay in the running for a home game.
3. Middletown 10-1 1480
- Guaranteed (10): Brist.East. vs. Brist.Cent.
- Bonuses (60): Wethersfield* vs. Newington; Platt vs. Maloney*; Weaver vs. Hartford Pub.*; East Lyme* vs. Waterford; Plainville vs. Farmington*; Glastonbury vs. Simsbury
MAX = 1550 [141.82] – 1490 [135.45]
THE SKINNY [UPDATED] – With the win over Windsor, they’re just a few bonuses away from clinching a home quarterfinal. A Darien loss means they’ll likely be the No. 3.
JUST WIN, BABY!
4. Darien 9-1 1300
- Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @New Canaan (L-10w)
- Guaranteed (10): Trinity Cath. vs. Wilton
- Bonuses (70): Amity vs. North Haven*; Bridg.Central vs. Harding*; Ffld.Ludlowe vs. Ffld.Warde*; Bull. Havens vs. Bassick*; Hillhouse* vs. Wilbur Cross; Ridgefield* vs. Danbury; Staples vs. Greenwich*
MAX = 1580 [143.64] – 1510 [137.27] MIN = 1380 [125.45] – 1310 [119.09]
THE SKINNY – Haven’t clinched, but they’re just a few bonus games from doing so. A win over New Canaan would not only assure it, but it would give the Wave a home game and probably the No. 3 or 4 seed. (they’d love to avoid No. 4 since that would keep them away from New Canaan for two rounds). A loss and the Blue Wave will need the couple of bonus games to get in (likely), and they could still get a home game if Naugatuck and New London lost. The Wave would just have to outpoint Farmington in bonuses. Yes, there is a (slight) chance they could wind up at No. 8 and face New Canaan AGAIN, but everyone would need to win around them.
5. Naugatuck 9-1 1250
- Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Ansonia (S-10w)
- Guaranteed (30): Wolcott vs. Holy Cross; Kennedy vs. Crosby; Wilby vs. Sacred Heart
- Bonuses (20): Watertown vs. Torrington*; Stratford vs. Bunnell*
MAX = 1500 [136.36] – 1480 [134.55] MIN = 1300 [118.18] – 1280 [116.36]
THE SKINNY – The Greyhounds are in with a win over unbeaten Ansonia and would clinch a home game if Darien or maybe Platt lost, most likely as the No. 4 seed.
A loss, and they’ll be doing some heavy scoreboard watching . Naugy could be one of six teams vying for four spots. A New London loss to NFA would be necessary along with one more loss from either Farmington, Hand, North Haven or Bristol Eastern.
Failing that – and it’s possible everybody wins — Naugy needs both of their bonus games to come through to max out at 1300 (118.18), and then pray Bristol Eastern, North Haven and Hand don’t get enough bonus help. Bristol Eastern would need three bonus wins to surpass Naugy, Hand would need four and North Haven three. A Woodland win over Seymour helps Naugy in the event of a tie with Bristol Eastern.
6. New London 8-2 1220
- Remaining Game(s): 11/21 v.East Lyme (L-5w), 11/28 @NFA (LL-8w)
- Guaranteed (10): Griswold vs. Plainfield
Bonuses (40): Killingly* vs. Putnam/Tourt./Ellis; Windham* vs. Woodstock; Ledyard vs. Fitch*;
Windsor vs. Middletown*
- MAX = 1460 [132.73] – 1430 [130.00] MIN = 1270 [115.45] – 1240 [112.73]
THE SKINNY – New London’s scenario is very simple: Beat NFA and they’re in. Lose and they’re practically done unless two of Farmington, Hand, Bristol Central and North Haven lose. Even then, that’s no guarantee.
UH, A LITTLE HELP HERE…?
7. Farmington 8-2 1160
- Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Plainville (S-4w)
- Guaranteed (10): Brist.East. vs. Brist.Cent.
- Bonuses (50): Wethersfield* vs. Newington; E.O. Smith* vs. Tolland; Platt vs. Maloney*;
Windsor* vs. Middletown; Bacon Acad. vs. RHAM*
MAX = 1350 [122.73] – 1310 [119.09]
MIN = 1220 [110.91] – 1170 [106.36]
THE SKINNY – Farmington must beat Plainville and get at least two bonus games to feel safe. Everything after that is (literally) a bonus. It’ll be in great shape if one team around it — New London or Naugatuck especially – lost. It is in line for the No. 7 seed, but can jump as high as No. 5 if Naugy and New London lose.
8. Bristol Eastern 8-2 1140
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 v.Brist.Cent. (L-4w)
Bonuses (50): New Britain vs. Berlin*; NW Catholic* vs. Rocky Hill; E.O. Smith* vs. Tolland; Platt vs. Maloney*; Weaver vs. Hartford Pub.*;
Windsor* vs. Middletown.
MAX = 1330 [120.91] – 1280 [116.36]
MIN = 1200 [109.09] – 1140 [103.64]
THE SKINNY [updated] – It needs to beat Bristol Central, but it’s going to counting heavily on bonus help to get in (or Hand and North Haven to lose) Worse, its
six FIVE bonus games aren’t certain. They were already denied Windsor, now they’re counting on Berlin, NWC, E.O. Smith, Maloney and Hartford Public to win.
If Bristol Eastern can get THREE bonuses, then they’ll be in good shape at 1310 (119.09) since Naugatuck couldn’t catch them and North Haven would have to get all just to pass them. If they get FOUR then they’d be a lock over North Haven.
Hand 7-3 1110
Remaining Game(s): 11/27 @Guilford (L-5w)
Guaranteed (10): Hillhouse vs. Wilbur Cross
Bonuses (50): Ffld.Prep* vs. West Haven; Amity vs. North Haven*; Hamden vs. ND-WH*; Derby vs. Shelton*; Cheshire* vs. Southington
MAX = 1320 [120.00] – 1270 [115.45] MIN = 1170 [106.36] – 1120 [101.82]
THE SKINNY – The Tigers need to beat Guilford on Thanksgiving eve. That would put them in great position to qualify especially if teams above them lose, like Naugatuck or New London. Many of their bonus games are favorable. If three of them come in, getting Hand to 118.18, the Tigers would be in great shape to qualify. If four of them come in (i.e. if Prep wins), then the Tigers get to 119.09, that would do the trick. Hand holds the tiebreakers over Bristol Eastern (tiebreak points) and North Haven (head-to-head) so they’d have an advantage over both if it was a three-way race for two spots.
North Haven 8-2 1110
Remaining Game(s): 11/28 @Amity (LL-5w)
Guaranteed (10): Branford vs. East Haven
Bonuses (50): Guilford* vs. Daniel Hand; Bridg.Central* vs. Harding; Hillhouse* vs. Wilbur Cross; Jonathan Law vs. Foran*; Sheehan* vs. Lyman Hall
MAX = 1330 [120.91] – 1280 [116.36] MIN = 1170 [106.36] – 1120 [101.82]
THE SKINNY [UPDATED] — North Haven needs to beat Amity on Thanksgiving. Like Hand, they’d likely get in if two of the teams around them lose and three bonus games.
Failing that, it would likely come down to a bonus race with Bristol Eastern and Hand for one or two spots.
Eastern has more potential and can beat the Indians on a tiebreaker.Hand benefits from North Haven winning and also has a head-to-head tiebreaker.
So if it comes down to two spots between, Bristol Eastern, Hand and North Haven everyone would start at 1280 and then wait for bonus help. North Haven would have to get one more than Hand and/or Bristol Eastern or it’s cooked.
If either Bristol Eastern (with three) or Hand (with three) reach 1310, then North Haven needs all of its remaining 40 bonuses to surpass them.
WINDSOR Needs to beat Middletown and then pray that Eastern, Hand and North Haven lose. Then it’ll need all of its bonus help just to get to a 110.00 average, which is highly unlikely.
SEE YOU NEXT YEAR
WETHERSFIELD & MASUK No way.